Post by swamprat on Jan 9, 2021 16:26:03 GMT
Plenty to think about!
What is the Dark Forest Theory? How doesn’t it relate to the Fermi Paradox?
By Steve Baker, Blogger at LetsRunWithIt.com (2013–present)
Updated June 23, 2020
It’s one possible solution to the so-called paradox that Fermi put forward…and it most certainly does relate to it.
But this is a hypothesis within a hypothesis within a hypothesis:
• The Drake equation is a good way to try to estimate the number of intelligent species in the galaxy. But a lot of the terms in it are very hard to estimate - so it’s kinda useless until we have more data.
• The Fermi paradox (in effect) plugs in numbers into the Drake equation that are really dubious - comes up with a large number for the probability of us being visited by aliens and then says that it’s a paradox that we have not been. Since the numbers it provides into the Drake equation are unsubstantiated…it’s not a paradox. One of the numbers is wrong.
• The Dark Forest hypothesis says that the reason we don’t see aliens is because every single alien species is so greatly concerned about other species attacking them that they dare not reveal themselves.
HENCE:
• Dark Forest is saying that the solution to the paradox is that ONE of the numbers plugged into the Drake equation is wrong. But why not any of the other numbers?
• The Fermi Paradox isn’t a paradox in the first place - it’s just bad guesswork for the numbers in the Drake equation.
• The Drake Equation may not even be correct if there are confounding factors that it may not consider. It’s not mathematical proof or anything. It’s just a way to discuss what we know (like what percentage of stars have planets) and what we don’t know (like what is the probability of abiogeneis).
So this is a triple layer cake of vague ideas - and the Dark Forest Hypothesis is the top (and most wobbly) of those layers. It’s a pretty useless contribution to the general discussion of alien life.
BUT I GUESS WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT ANYWAY:
Soooo…. Dark Forest says that NOBODY talks because they’re scared - and therefore NOBODY finds out whether anyone else exists.
It’s a somewhat plausible theory - but it’s badly shaken by the indisputable fact that we humans have gone around broadcasting and narrowcasting messages to nearby stars - sending out deep space probes with convenient maps to our location etched into them - sending out “Welcome” messages in 130 languages…that kind of thing!
So this concept just exchanges one paradox (Why don’t we hear from any alien species?) with a new one (Why are humans the only species who aren’t too scared to send out messages?).
This might be the case - but it’s a terrible “solution” to the Fermi paradox.
By far the simplest explanation is that life is so rare that none of the other species are in radio range of us.
But you can basically pick any of the unknown terms in the Drake equation and set it to a small enough value - and you have another potential solution to the Fermi paradox.
The Drake equation multiplies together the following terms:
1. R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
2. fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
3. ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
4. fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
5. fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
6. fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
7. L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
We’re probably correct about R*, fp, and maybe…more dubiously, ne (presuming that being in the “habitable zone” where there can be liquid water - and being roughly earth-sized is both necessary and sufficient.
But we have no idea about fl (except that it’s not zero because we exist), we might hazard a guess about fi because (for example) the dinosaurs never seem to have developed intelligence - but yet we have some measure of intelligence in whales, elephants, octopus, grey parrots, ravens, etc.
fc can’t be zero (because we developed that technology) - but if Dark Forest is claiming that this number must be so infinitesimally small that we alone are the only ones not to scared to talk.
L is another unknown - it seems to be at least 100 years…but much depends on how strong those signals have to be and how hard we look.
So why home in on fc as being the tiny number? Why can’t the solution to the Fermi Paradox be (say)
• “Rare Moon”: The ne term is small because it turns out that life can’t happen without a large moon orbiting a small planet - and since our moon was formed by a seemingly VERY rare collision between two planets…that could be a tiny number.
• “Self-Replication is unlikely”: The fl term is tiny because it requires random formation of protein chains by inorganic means of a self-replicating molecule. (This seems to me to be an insanely small number).
• “Intelligence is rare”: The fi term is tiny because intelligence isn’t a very useful thing to evolve - and something unique about Earth is only reason our planet produced it.
• “Dark Forest” could account for fc being small - but I can think of other reasons. Maybe intelligent life MOSTLY forms in places where radio communication isn’t useful or necessary. Maybe life forms in tiny villages who don’t talk much to each other for cultural reasons - so it’s easier to shout to your neighbor than use a phone? Maybe life forms mostly around stars that put out so much radio noise that radio is useless as a means of communication.
• “Radio is like Flint hand tools” could account for L being small. Maybe there are much better forms of communication (quantum entanglement perhaps) that means that radio ceases to be useful…or maybe most civilizations move their intelligences inside vast computers with virtual reality - and so stop needing external communications after 200 years.
So Dark Forest is only one of at least five (and probably dozens) of other ways that the Fermi paradox can be broken.
To me it seems the least likely. If there are marauding alien armies who eat other civilizations who dare to communicate - how come we can’t detect THOSE civilizations?
Source: www.quora.com/
What is the Dark Forest Theory? How doesn’t it relate to the Fermi Paradox?
By Steve Baker, Blogger at LetsRunWithIt.com (2013–present)
Updated June 23, 2020
It’s one possible solution to the so-called paradox that Fermi put forward…and it most certainly does relate to it.
But this is a hypothesis within a hypothesis within a hypothesis:
• The Drake equation is a good way to try to estimate the number of intelligent species in the galaxy. But a lot of the terms in it are very hard to estimate - so it’s kinda useless until we have more data.
• The Fermi paradox (in effect) plugs in numbers into the Drake equation that are really dubious - comes up with a large number for the probability of us being visited by aliens and then says that it’s a paradox that we have not been. Since the numbers it provides into the Drake equation are unsubstantiated…it’s not a paradox. One of the numbers is wrong.
• The Dark Forest hypothesis says that the reason we don’t see aliens is because every single alien species is so greatly concerned about other species attacking them that they dare not reveal themselves.
HENCE:
• Dark Forest is saying that the solution to the paradox is that ONE of the numbers plugged into the Drake equation is wrong. But why not any of the other numbers?
• The Fermi Paradox isn’t a paradox in the first place - it’s just bad guesswork for the numbers in the Drake equation.
• The Drake Equation may not even be correct if there are confounding factors that it may not consider. It’s not mathematical proof or anything. It’s just a way to discuss what we know (like what percentage of stars have planets) and what we don’t know (like what is the probability of abiogeneis).
So this is a triple layer cake of vague ideas - and the Dark Forest Hypothesis is the top (and most wobbly) of those layers. It’s a pretty useless contribution to the general discussion of alien life.
BUT I GUESS WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT ANYWAY:
Soooo…. Dark Forest says that NOBODY talks because they’re scared - and therefore NOBODY finds out whether anyone else exists.
It’s a somewhat plausible theory - but it’s badly shaken by the indisputable fact that we humans have gone around broadcasting and narrowcasting messages to nearby stars - sending out deep space probes with convenient maps to our location etched into them - sending out “Welcome” messages in 130 languages…that kind of thing!
So this concept just exchanges one paradox (Why don’t we hear from any alien species?) with a new one (Why are humans the only species who aren’t too scared to send out messages?).
This might be the case - but it’s a terrible “solution” to the Fermi paradox.
By far the simplest explanation is that life is so rare that none of the other species are in radio range of us.
But you can basically pick any of the unknown terms in the Drake equation and set it to a small enough value - and you have another potential solution to the Fermi paradox.
The Drake equation multiplies together the following terms:
1. R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
2. fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
3. ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
4. fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
5. fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
6. fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
7. L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space
We’re probably correct about R*, fp, and maybe…more dubiously, ne (presuming that being in the “habitable zone” where there can be liquid water - and being roughly earth-sized is both necessary and sufficient.
But we have no idea about fl (except that it’s not zero because we exist), we might hazard a guess about fi because (for example) the dinosaurs never seem to have developed intelligence - but yet we have some measure of intelligence in whales, elephants, octopus, grey parrots, ravens, etc.
fc can’t be zero (because we developed that technology) - but if Dark Forest is claiming that this number must be so infinitesimally small that we alone are the only ones not to scared to talk.
L is another unknown - it seems to be at least 100 years…but much depends on how strong those signals have to be and how hard we look.
So why home in on fc as being the tiny number? Why can’t the solution to the Fermi Paradox be (say)
• “Rare Moon”: The ne term is small because it turns out that life can’t happen without a large moon orbiting a small planet - and since our moon was formed by a seemingly VERY rare collision between two planets…that could be a tiny number.
• “Self-Replication is unlikely”: The fl term is tiny because it requires random formation of protein chains by inorganic means of a self-replicating molecule. (This seems to me to be an insanely small number).
• “Intelligence is rare”: The fi term is tiny because intelligence isn’t a very useful thing to evolve - and something unique about Earth is only reason our planet produced it.
• “Dark Forest” could account for fc being small - but I can think of other reasons. Maybe intelligent life MOSTLY forms in places where radio communication isn’t useful or necessary. Maybe life forms in tiny villages who don’t talk much to each other for cultural reasons - so it’s easier to shout to your neighbor than use a phone? Maybe life forms mostly around stars that put out so much radio noise that radio is useless as a means of communication.
• “Radio is like Flint hand tools” could account for L being small. Maybe there are much better forms of communication (quantum entanglement perhaps) that means that radio ceases to be useful…or maybe most civilizations move their intelligences inside vast computers with virtual reality - and so stop needing external communications after 200 years.
So Dark Forest is only one of at least five (and probably dozens) of other ways that the Fermi paradox can be broken.
To me it seems the least likely. If there are marauding alien armies who eat other civilizations who dare to communicate - how come we can’t detect THOSE civilizations?
Source: www.quora.com/
