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Post by swamprat on Jan 15, 2021 15:20:18 GMT
The planet is dying faster than we thought By Brandon Specktor - Senior Writer, 15 January 2021
A triple-threat of climate change, biodiversity loss and overpopulation is bearing down on Earth.
Charred trees are seen along Pallet Creek Road during the Bobcat Fire in Valyermo, California, September 18, 2020. Climate change is poised to exacerbate the frequency and intensity of annual wildfires. (Image: © Kyle Grillot/ Getty)
Humanity is barreling toward a "ghastly future" of mass extinctions, health crises and constant climate-induced disruptions to society — one that can only be prevented if world leaders start taking environmental threats seriously, scientists warn in a new paper published Jan. 13 in the journal Frontiers in Conservation Science.
In the paper, a team of 17 researchers based in the United States, Mexico and Australia describes three major crises facing life on Earth: climate disruption, biodiversity decline and human overconsumption and overpopulation. Citing more than 150 studies, the team argues that these three crises — which are poised only to escalate in the coming decades — put Earth in a more precarious position than most people realize, and could even jeopardize the human race.
The point of the new paper isn't to scold average citizens or warn that all is lost, the authors wrote — but rather, to plainly describe the threats facing our planet so that people (and hopefully political leaders) start taking them seriously and planning mitigating actions, before it's too late.
"Ours is not a call to surrender," the authors wrote in their paper. "We aim to provide leaders with a realistic 'cold shower' of the state of the planet that is essential for planning to avoid a ghastly future."
What will that future look like? For starters, the team writes, nature will be a lot lonelier. Since the start of agriculture 11,000 years ago, Earth has lost an estimated 50% of its terrestrial plants and roughly 20% of its animal biodiversity, the authors said, citing two studies, one from 2018 and the other from 2019. If current trends continue, as many as 1 million of Earth's 7 million to 10 million plant and animal species could face extinction in the near future, according to the new paper.
Such an enormous loss of biodiversity would also disrupt every major ecosystem on the planet, the team wrote, with fewer insects to pollinate plants, fewer plants to filter the air, water and soil, and fewer forests to protect human settlements from floods and other natural disasters, the team wrote.
Meanwhile, those same phenomena that cause natural disasters are all predicted to become stronger and more frequent due to global climate change. These disasters, coupled with climate-induced droughts and sea-level rise, could mean 1 billion people would become climate refugees by the year 2050, forcing mass migrations that further endanger human lives and disrupt society.
Overpopulation will not make anything easier.
"By 2050, the world population will likely grow to ~9.9 billion, with growth projected by many to continue until well into the next century," the study authors wrote.
This booming growth will exacerbate societal problems like food insecurity, housing insecurity, joblessness, overcrowding and inequality. Larger populations also increase the chances of pandemics, the team wrote; as humans encroach ever farther into wild spaces, the risk of uncovering deadly new zoonotic diseases — like SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 — becomes ever greater, according to a study published in September 2020 in the journal World Development.
While we can see and feel the effects of global warming on a daily basis — like record-setting heat across the world and increasingly active hurricane seasons, for instance — the worst effects of these other crises could take decades to become apparent, the team wrote. That delay between cause and effect may be responsible for what the authors call an "utterly inadequate" effort to address these encroaching environmental threats.
"If most of the world's population truly understood and appreciated the magnitude of the crises we summarize here, and the inevitability of worsening conditions, one could logically expect positive changes in politics and policies to match the gravity of the existential threats," the team wrote. "But the opposite is unfolding."
Indeed, just last week a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change revealed that humans have already blown past the global warming targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, and we are currently on track to inhabit a world that is 4.1 degrees Fahrenheit (2.3 degrees Celsius) warmer than average global temperatures in the pre-industrial era — slightly more than halfway to the United Nation's "worst-case scenario." Nations have similarly failed to meet basic biodiversity targets set by the U.N. in 2010, the authors note.
The dark future described in this paper is not guaranteed, the authors wrote, so long as world leaders and policymakers start immediately taking the problems before us seriously. Once leaders accept "the gravity of the situation," then the large-scale changes needed to conserve our planet can begin. Those changes must be sweeping, including "the abolition of perpetual economic growth … [and] a rapid exit from fossil-fuel use," the authors wrote.
But the first step is education.
"It is therefore incumbent on experts in any discipline that deals with the future of the biosphere and human well-being to … avoid sugar-coating the overwhelming challenges ahead and 'tell it like it is,'" the team concluded. "Anything else is misleading at best … potentially lethal for the human enterprise at worst."
www.livescience.com/ghastly-future-global-crises.html
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2021 17:21:04 GMT
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Post by swamprat on Jan 29, 2021 23:15:48 GMT
Scientists solve a major climate mystery, confirming Earth is hotter than it's been in at least 120 centuries By Chelsea Gohd, 29 January 2021
Scientists have resolved a controversial but key climate change mystery, bolstering climate models and confirming that Earth is hotter than it's been in at least 12,000 years, and perhaps even the last 128,000 years, according to the most recent annual global temperature data.
This mystery is known as the "Holocene temperature conundrum," and it describes a debate that has gone on over how temperatures have changed during the Holocene, an epoch that describes the last 11,700 years of our planet's history. While some previous proxy reconstructions suggest that average Holocene temperatures peaked between 6,000 and 10,000 years ago and the planet cooled after this, climate models suggest that global temperatures have actually risen over the past 12,000 years, with the help of factors like rising greenhouse gas emissions and climate change.
This "conundrum" has "cast doubts among skeptics about the efficacy of current climate models to accurately predict our future," lead author Samantha Bova, a postdoctoral researcher associate at Rutgers University, told Space.com in an email.
The new research puts this uncertainty to rest, however, demonstrating that current climate projections are right on the money.
The study "eliminates any doubts about the key role of carbon dioxide in global warming and confirms climate model simulations that show global mean annual temperature warming, rather than cooling, across the Holocene period," Bova said.
Specifically, the team demonstrated "that late Holocene cooling as reconstructed by proxies is a seasonal signal," Bova told Space.com.
To do this, the team developed a new method that allowed them to "use seasonal temperatures to come up with annual averages. Using our new method, we demonstrate that Holocene mean annual temperatures have been steadily rising," Bova added.
The scientists analyzed previously published sea surface temperature data, which used information about the fossils of foraminifera — single-celled organisms that live on the surface of the ocean —and other biomarkers from marine algae. This allowed them to reconstruct temperatures through history.
With this data, "we show that the post-industrial increase in global temperature rose from the warmest mean annual temperature recorded over the past 12,000 years," Bova said, adding that this is contrary to recent research. "Earth’s global temperatures have therefore reached uncharted territory that has not been observed over at least the past 12,000 and perhaps the past 128,000 years."
"Given that 2020 is tied for the warmest year on record based on the new NASA/NOAA data release, our results demonstrate that average annual temperatures in 2020 were the warmest of the last 12,000 years and possibly the last 128,000 years," Bova concluded. (NOAA is the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)
By confirming temperature records throughout this time period, the team didn't just provide additional evidence for "the efficacy of current climate models in accurately simulating climate over the past 12,000 years," Bova said. The work also "gives confidence in their ability to predict the future."
This work was published Jan. 27 in the journal Nature.
www.space.com/scientists-solve-climate-mystery-holocene-temperature-conundrum
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Post by swamprat on Apr 26, 2021 16:41:19 GMT
The other side of the argument:
You have to love “REAL” science and “TRUE” facts.
Ian Rutherford Plimer is an Australian geologist, professor emeritus of earth sciences at the University of Melbourne, professor of mining geology at the University of Adelaide, and the director of multiple mineral exploration and mining companies.
He has published 130 scientific papers, six books and edited the Encyclopedia of Geology.
Born
12 February 1946
Residence
Australia
Nationality
Australian
Fields
Earth Science , Geology, Mining Engineering
Institutions
University of New England, University of Newcastle, University of Melbourne, University of Adelaide
Alma mater
University of New South Wales ,Macquarie University
Thesis
The pipe deposits of tungsten-molybdenum-bismuth in eastern Australia(1976)
Notable awards
Eureka Prize (1995, 2002),Centenary Medal(2003), Clarke Medal
(2004)
Where Does the Carbon Dioxide Really Come From?
Professor Ian Plimer could not have said it better!
If you've read his book, you will agree this is a good summary.
PLIMER: "Okay, here's the bombshell. The volcanic eruption in Iceland. Since its first spewing of volcanic ash has, in just FOUR DAYS, NEGATED EVERY SINGLE EFFORT you have made in the past five years to control CO2 emissions on our planet - all of you.
Of course, you know about this evil carbon dioxide that we are trying to suppress - its that vital chemical compound that every plant requires to live and grow, and to synthesize into oxygen for us humans and all animal life.
I know.... it's very disheartening to realize that all of the carbon emission savings you have accomplished while suffering the inconvenience and expense of driving Prius hybrids, buying fabric grocery bags, sitting up till midnight to finish your kids "The Green Revolution" science project, throwing out all of your non-green cleaning supplies, using only two squares of toilet paper, putting a brick in your toilet tank reservoir, selling your SUV and speedboat, vacationing at home instead of abroad, nearly getting hit every day on your bicycle, replacing all of your 50 cent light bulbs with $10.00 light bulbs..... well, all of those things you have done have all gone down the tubes in just four days.
The volcanic ash emitted into the Earth's atmosphere in just four days - yes, FOUR DAYS - by that volcano in Iceland has totally erased every single effort you have made to reduce the evil beast, carbon. And there are around 200 active volcanoes on the planet spewing out this crud at any one time - EVERY DAY.
I don't really want to rain on your parade too much, but I should mention that when the volcano Mt. Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines in 1991, it spewed out more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire human race had emitted in all its years on earth.
Yes, folks, Mt. Pinatubo was active for over one year - think about it.
Of course, I shouldn't spoil this 'touchy-feely tree-hugging' moment and mention the effect of solar and cosmic activity and the well-recognized 800-year global heating and cooling cycle, which keeps happening despite our completely insignificant efforts to affect climate change.
And I do wish I had a silver lining to this volcanic ash cloud, but the fact of the matter is that the bush fire season across the western USA and Australia this year alone will negate your efforts to reduce carbon in our world for the next two to three years. And it happens every year. Just remember that your government just tried to impose a whopping carbon tax on you, on the basis of the bogus 'human-caused' climate-change scenario.
Hey, isn't it interesting how they don't mention 'Global Warming' anymore, but just "Climate Change" - you know why?
It's because the planet has COOLED by 0.7 degrees in the past century, and these global warming bull**** artists got caught with their pants down. And, just keep in mind that you might yet be stuck with an Emissions Trading Scheme - that whopping new tax - imposed on you that will achieve absolutely nothing except make you poorer.
It won't stop any volcanoes from erupting, that's for sure.
But, hey, relax...give the world a hug, and have a nice day!"
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2021 13:48:50 GMT
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Post by thelmadonna on Apr 27, 2021 21:07:35 GMT
My Japanese blossoming cherry trees blossomed about 10 days early. They are called May trees here in Scotland because it is usually not warm enough until then, we have had a few -deg C The blossoms are falling fast, One other year in the past when frost killed the blossom was the only year it produced cherries, that was around 30 yrs ago.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2021 21:17:42 GMT
My Japanese blossoming cherry trees blossomed about 10 days early. They are called May trees here in Scotland because it is usually not warm enough until then, we have had a few -deg C The blossoms are falling fast, One other year in the past when frost killed the blossom was the only year it produced cherries, that was around 30 yrs ago. I hope they make it. It snowed a bit here just a few days ago (not uncommon for my neck of the woods). Warm, in the 70's today. My Babylonian Weeping Willow (still a sapling) seems to be bouncing back. A couple of other nice sized trees in the yard appear to be ok. I was concerned for a sec. I just looked into a Japanese Maple today (considering). A bit pricey ( $ 169 I think) but, beautiful ! Ive always wanted one.
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Post by thelmadonna on Apr 27, 2021 22:19:21 GMT
They cope well in my area, every size from pot bush to sixty foot trees, amazing colours.
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Post by swamprat on May 26, 2021 14:11:28 GMT
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Post by swamprat on May 26, 2021 15:05:29 GMT
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Post by swamprat on Jun 17, 2021 2:32:03 GMT
Earth is now trapping an ‘unprecedented’ amount of heat, NASA says New research shows that the amount of heat the planet traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to more rapidly warming oceans, air and landBy Tik RootJune 16, 2021
The amount of heat Earth traps has roughly doubled since 2005, contributing to more rapidly warming oceans, air and land, according to new research from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“The magnitude of the increase is unprecedented,” said Norman Loeb, a NASA scientist and lead author of the study, which was published this week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. “The Earth is warming faster than expected.”
Using satellite data, researchers measured what is known as Earth’s energy imbalance — the difference between how much energy the planet absorbs from the sun, and how much it’s able to shed, or radiate back out into space.
When there is a positive imbalance — Earth absorbing more heat than it is losing — it is a first step toward global warming, said Stuart Evans, a climate scientist at the University at Buffalo. “It’s a sign the Earth is gaining energy.”
That imbalance roughly doubled between 2005 and 2019, the study found. “It is a massive amount of energy,” said Gregory Johnson, an oceanographer for NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and co-author of the study. Johnson said the energy increase is equivalent to four detonations per second of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, or every person on Earth using 20 electric tea kettles at once. “It’s such a hard number to get your mind around.”
The Earth takes in about 240 watts per square meter of energy from the sun. At the beginning of the study period, in 2005, it was radiating back out about 239.5 of those watts — creating a positive imbalance of about half a watt. By the end, in 2019, that gap had nearly doubled to about 1 full watt per square meter.
Oceans absorb most of that heat, about 90 percent. When researchers compared satellite data to temperature readings from a system of ocean sensors, they found a similar pattern. The agreement between the data sets surpassed expectations, Loeb said, calling it the “nail in the coffin” for the imbalance results.
“The fact that they used two different observational approaches and came up with the same trends is pretty remarkable,” said Elizabeth Maroon, a climatologist at the University of Wisconsin at Madison unaffiliated with the study. “It lends a lot of confidence to the findings.”
The biggest outstanding question is what is driving the acceleration.
The study points to decreases in cloud cover and sea ice, which reflect solar energy back into space, and an increase in greenhouse gases emitted by humans, such as methane and carbon dioxide, as well as water vapor, which trap more heat in the Earth, as factors in the imbalance. But it is difficult to discern human-induced changes from cyclical variations in the climate, the researchers said.
“They are all kind of blended together,” said Loeb, who added that further research is needed to determine the factors.
The period studied overlapped with fluctuations in the climate that may have played a significant role in the acceleration, including a strong El Niño event from 2014 to 2016, which led to unusually warm waters. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a longer-term, El Niño-like fluctuation, and around 2014 that also switched from a “cool” phase to a “warm” phase.
But, Johnson says, that doesn’t let humans off the hook. “We’re responsible for some of it,” he said. It’s just unclear how much.
Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished scholar at the National Center of Atmospheric Research, said the results of the study aren’t particularly surprising given these climatic variations. But 15 years is not enough time to establish a trend, he said.
“Certainly you’d like to see another 10 years or something like that to see how this behaves,” he said. “The question is: Will this continue?”
That too is unclear, Johnson said. The imbalance could shrink in some years compared to others, he said, but the general trajectory appears to be upward, especially if the Pacific Decadal Oscillation stays in a warm phase.
“The longer we observe it,” he said, “the more certain we become of the trend.”
Tracking Earth’s energy imbalance will also help scientists better understand climate change, Johnson said. Other common metrics, such as air temperature, only catch a fraction of the effect of the sun’s heat. The imbalance, he said, measures “the full amount of heat that goes into the climate system.”
Regardless of the magnitude or reasons for the accelerated imbalance, the fact that it is positive is crucial, said Trenberth. “It’s the sign that matters here,” he said. “The fact that it’s positive means that global heating is happening.”
That extra heat, especially in the oceans, will mean more intense hurricanes and marine heat waves.
“I hope the heating doesn’t keep going at this clip,” Loeb said. “It’s not good news.”
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/06/16/earth-heat-imbalance-warming/
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Post by erno86 on Jun 23, 2021 17:37:16 GMT
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Post by swamprat on Jul 1, 2021 14:05:48 GMT
Ya think.....?Scientists warn of climate change intensifying heat wavesBY RACHEL FRAZIN AND ZACK BUDRYK
Scientists are warning that climate change is already compounding the extreme heat battering the Pacific Northwest and will do so even more as the planet continues to warm.
Oregon and Washington saw record-setting triple-digit temperatures this week, bringing many aspects of daily life to a grinding halt.
In Portland, a mass transit company canceled service because of melting cables, while highway pavement in the Seattle area buckled in the extreme heat.
Weather experts said that while there are many factors at play in this most recent heat wave, climate change is adding a few extra degrees to an already bad situation.
“This is a highly unusual weather event that we're dealing with ... that's what we're having in this case, in which all the factors that tend to make it hot in the Pacific Northwest are all working together,” said Nick Bond, an atmospheric science professor at the University of Washington.
But he added that climate change, which he said had raised temperatures by 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit in the region, “certainly has a role here in that our summer temperatures have risen, and they're going to continue to rise.”
“It's that much more severe of an event because of that baseline warming,” he told The Hill.
National Weather Service meteorologist Robin Fox told The Hill she’d refrain from attributing any singular weather event to climate change and instead described the Pacific Northwest heat wave as being caused by a “large area of high pressure” that’s bringing “historic heat” to the region.
Some experts said that as the Earth heats up, climate change could have a more dramatic impact on summer heat, posing risks to humans in different ways
“All the indicators are very clear that we are entering continually hotter, dryer, riskier summers,” Sarah Myhre, a climate scientist and executive director of the Rowan Institute, told The Hill.
“From a climate change context, the idea that heat extremes are going to become more extreme and more intense” has been known to scientists for decades, she added.
Jane Baldwin, a postdoctoral research scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, added that climate change will affect not only temperatures across the board but also the nature of atypically hot periods.
“We have very clear evidence that as greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase, the overall temperature warms, but also because of that, heat waves increase in intensity and duration,” Baldwin said.
“Until the event has passed, it’s hard to do the attribution of the event in terms of how much of this event can be attributed to climate change, but I do think it is a harbinger of what is projected to come with global warming,” she added.
The Biden administration has highlighted climate change as among the major crises the U.S. is facing and has said it wants to cut emissions at least in half by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
Congress will soon determine which of President Biden’s climate measures to include in their infrastructure packages, and federal agencies are expected to take regulatory actions to cut emissions.
Kristie Ebi, a professor of environmental and occupational health sciences at the University of Washington, said the heat wave in the Northwest was unusual but also in line with the trajectory of climate change.
"What we're seeing today is more extreme, but it certainly is part of what's expected with the changing climate,” she said.
Seattle has seen record-shattering triple-digit temperatures in recent days, and inland areas such as Spokane, Wash., could see several more days of extreme heat, according to the National Weather Service.
The heat wave comes less than a year after September 2020 registered as the hottest September on record globally. Six of the warmest years on record occurred in the 2010s.
Experts also raised concerns about the human impacts, particularly to those in disadvantaged communities or who are otherwise vulnerable.
“Think about all the vulnerable people: pregnant women, babies, the elderly ... anyone who is at risk in society is also going to have compounding impacts from a heat event like this,” Myhre said. “Just like COVID, this is an example of how inequity is exacerbated when disaster happens.”
“This is just the beginning of the heat waves we will see,” Myhre added, warning of “really catastrophic heat-induced events in places that have no infrastructure to protect people.”
“One of the reasons why we are able to navigate the heat waves this year is we currently don’t have any smoke and we’re able to ventilate our houses,” she noted. However, she said, “if we get to a point where we have smoke,” the effects of the heat will be even more acutely felt.
These extreme temperatures are also likely to lead to a wave of health problems for which local health infrastructure may be unprepared, Ebi said.
“Our core body temperature actually only operates within a ... narrow range,” she said. “When [the body’s] mechanisms are insufficient, because of chronic disease, for example, and our core body temperature starts to rise, it starts to affect our organ systems.”
As a result, she said, when experts speak of the health risks of temperature spikes, “it’s not just the heat stress, the heat stroke we’re worried about, it’s people who have underlying chronic medical conditions, children and babies, those over the age of 65, people who take drugs that limit the ability of the body to sweat.”
thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/560836-scientists-warn-of-climate-change-intensifying-heat-waves?userid=365212&utm_source=EarthSky+News&utm_campaign=78ea937993-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_02_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c643945d79-78ea937993-394368745
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Post by erno86 on Jul 1, 2021 17:53:41 GMT
"San Diego Researcher Studies Lake Collapse On Antarctica Ice Shelf - June 28, 2021"
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Post by swamprat on Jul 28, 2021 16:57:56 GMT
Ignoring climate change will yield 'untold suffering,' panel of 14,000 scientists warns By Brandon Specktor - Senior Writer about 7 hours ago
A few big climate policies could change everything — but we have to act fast.
Human activity may be pushing the climate beyond a 'tipping point,' a new report suggests.
Nearly 14,000 scientists have signed a new climate emergency paper, warning that "untold suffering" awaits the human race if we don't start tackling global warming head-on, effective immediately.
The new paper, published July 28 in the journal BioScience and led by researchers from Oregon State University, is an update of a 2019 paper that declared a global "climate emergency" and evaluated Earth's vital signs based on 31 variables — including greenhouse gas emissions, surface temperature changes, glacial ice mass loss, Amazon rainforest loss, plus various social factors like global gross domestic product (GDP) and fossil fuel subsidies.
Unsurprisingly, the authors of the new paper find that Earth's vitals have only deteriorated over the last two years, with 18 of the report's 31 categories showing new all-time record highs or lows, the authors wrote. Greenhouse gas emissions are at an all-time high, while glacial ice thickness is at its lowest point in 71 years of record keeping, the report found. The world is richer than it's ever been (measured by global GDP), while the sky is more polluted than ever (measured by carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide concentrations in the atmosphere).
"The updated planetary vital signs we present reflect the consequences of unrelenting business as usual," the authors wrote in the study. "A major lesson from COVID-19 is that even colossally decreased transportation and consumption are not nearly enough and that, instead, transformational system changes are required, and they must rise above politics."
While the report includes some positive trends — like record increases in the use of solar and wind energy, and institutions divesting money from the fossil fuel industry — it paints a generally bleak picture of the future, accentuated by ongoing surges in climate-related disasters like floods, hurricanes, wildfires and heat waves, the authors wrote. The planet may also be about to pass (or has already passed) critical natural tipping points — such as the Amazon rainforest becoming a carbon source rather than a carbon sink — from which it will be hard to recover, the team added.
This all boils down to one conclusion: The future habitability of our planet depends on immediate, large-scale action, the authors wrote.
To accomplish this task, the team suggests a three-pronged near-term policy approach: 1) Implement a "significant" global carbon price to reduce emissions; 2) phase out and eventually ban fossil fuels; and 3) restore and protect key carbon-rich ecosystems, like forests and wetlands, to preserve the planet's largest carbon sinks and protect biodiversity.
"Implementing these three policies soon will help ensure the long-term sustainability of human civilization and give future generations the opportunity to thrive," the authors wrote. "The speed of change is essential, and new climate policies should be part of COVID-19 recovery plans."
The researchers plan to release another planetary "check-in" in the coming years. Hopefully, that future report will show more signs of positive change as more nations take the severity of climate change seriously. Or, perhaps it will reflect the collapse of society. Time — and political action — will tell.
www.livescience.com/earth-vital-signs-climate-change-suffering.html?utm_source=SmartBrief&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=368B3745-DDE0-4A69-A2E8-62503D85375D&utm_content=B114CDEB-D837-4B56-9907-E9A1439CC147&utm_term=bfd0bb3f-e841-4adf-b05a-907662e2aab0
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