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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 20:07:39 GMT
Australian Pilot Frederick Valentich Disappears
source article at main site UFOCASEBOOK
Frederick Valentich
1978 - Boats and aircraft found no trace of the 20-year-old Australian pilot who disappeared with his plane on Saturday night after radioing that he was being chased by a UFO.
Frederick Valentich was on a 125 mile training flight in his single engine Cessna 182 along the coast of Bass Strait when he told air traffic controllers in Melbourne that he was being buzzed by a UFO with 4 bright lights about 1000 feet above him.
Controllers said his last message was taped and was: "It's approaching from due east towards me. It seems to be playing some sort of game... flying at a speed I can't estimate. It's not an aircraft. It's... It is flying past. It is a long shape. I cannot identify more than that. It's coming for me right now."
A minute later: "It seems to be stationary. I'm also orbiting and the thing is orbiting on top of me also. It has a green light and a sort of metallic light on the outside."
Valentich then radioed that his engine was running roughly.
His last words were: "It is not an aircraft."
The Australian Air Force said it had received 11 reports from people along the coast who said they saw UFOs on Saturday night, but the Transport Department was skeptical.
Ken Williams, a spokesman for the department, said, "It's funny all these people ringing up with UFO reports well after Valentich's disappearance. It seems people often decide after the event, they too had seen strange lights. But although we can't take them too seriously, we can never discourage such reports when investigating a plane's disappearance."
Some Transport Dept officials have speculated that Valentich became disoriented and saw his own lights reflected in the water, or lights from a nearby island, while flying upside down.
Frederick Valentich by plane Valentich's father, Guio, said his son used to study UFOs "as a hobby using information he had received from the Air Force. He was not the kind of person who would make up stories. Everything had to be very correct and positive for him.
"The fact that they have found no trace of him really verifies the fact that UFOs could have been there."
Guio Valentich said he hoped his son hadn't crashed but had been taken by a UFO.
Editors Note: It is a total misconception that UFO reports were only made after Valentich's report. According to the Victorian UFO Research Society, based at Moorabbin, near the location from where the disappearance took place, there had been a UFO wave ongoing for at least six weeks before the date of Valentich's disappearance.
ACTUAL TRANSCRIPTION OF MELBOURNE FLIGHT SERVICE
The transcript portion of the communication between Valentich and Melbourne Flight Service as released by the Australian Department of Transport follows: (FS - Flight Service, DSJ - Frederick Valentich aircraft designation).
1906:14 DSJ Melbourne, this is Delta Sierra Juliet. Is there any known traffic below five thousand?
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, no known traffic.
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, I am, seems to be a large aircraft below five thousand.
1906:44 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, What type of aircraft is it?
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, I cannot affirm, it is four bright, it seems to me like landing lights.
1907 FS Delta Sierra Juliet.
1907:31 DSJ Melbourne, this is Delta Sierra Juliet, the aircraft has just passed over me at least a thousand feet above.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, and it is a large aircraft, confirmed?
DSJ Er-unknown, due to the speed it's travelling, is there any air force aircraft in the vicinity?
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, no known aircraft in the vicinity.
1908:18 DSJ Melbourne, it's approaching now from due east towards me.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet.
1908:41 DSJ (open microphone for two seconds.)
1908:48 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, it seems to me that he's playing some sort of game, he's flying over me two, three times at speeds I could not identify.
1909 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, what is your actual level?
DSJ My level is four and a half thousand, four five zero zero.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, and you confirm you cannot identify the aircraft?
DSJ Affirmative.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, stand by.
1909:27 DSJ Melbourne, Delta Sierra Juliet, it's not an aircraft it is (open microphone for two seconds).
1909:42 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, can you describe the -er- aircraft?
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, as it's flying past it's a long shape (open microphone for three seconds) cannot identify more than it has such speed (open microphone for three seconds). It's before me right now Melbourne.
1910 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger and how large would the - er - object be?
1910:19 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, Melbourne, it seems like it's stationary. What I'm doing right now is orbiting and the thing is just orbiting on top of me also. It's got a green light and sort of metallic like, it's all shiny on the outside.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet
1910:46 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet (open microphone for three seconds) It's just vanished.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet
1911 DSJ Melbourne, would you know what kind of aircraft I've got? Is it a military aircraft?
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, Confirm the - er ~ aircraft just vanished.
DSJ Say again.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, is the aircraft still with you?
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet; it's (open microphone for two seconds) now approaching from the south-west.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet
1911:50 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, the engine is rough-idling. I've got it set at twenty three twenty-four and the thing is coughing.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, what are your intentions?
DSJ My intentions are - ah - to go to King Island - ah - Melbourne. That strange aircraft is hovering on top of me again (open microphone for two seconds). It is hovering and it's not an aircraft.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet.
1912:28 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet. Melbourne (open microphone for seventeen seconds).
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Post by Admin on Apr 11, 2018 20:17:53 GMT
Thanks for posting such a great case.
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Post by HAL on Apr 11, 2018 20:19:12 GMT
There are a lot of inconsistencies in the Valentich case.
His reason for going didn't make sense. He was supposedly going for crayfish But there were no crayfish available at the time.
It was going to be dark when he arrived but he didn't request some one be there to turn on the runway lights.
Various other things that cast doubt on the story.
HAL
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Post by GhostofEd on Apr 11, 2018 20:45:00 GMT
The Skeptoid Podcast (transcript) Dunning, B. "The Disappearance of Frederick Valentich." Skeptoid Podcast. Skeptoid Media, 22 Oct 2013. Web. 11 Apr 2018.
skeptoid.com/episodes/4385"Today we're going back to 1978, when a young private pilot named Frederick Valentich rented a single-engine Cessna and literally flew off into the sunset, never to be seen again. Sadly there's nothing unusual about that; the fact is that small planes crash every so often. But something was different this time. The case of Frederick Valentich has been called Australia's most famous aviation mystery; not because he disappeared, but because his final radio transmissions reported a UFO. Ever since, a subculture of Australians, notably including Valentich's own father, believed he was abducted by aliens and may yet be alive somewhere." |
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 20:46:03 GMT
Thanks for posting such a great case. You're very welcome Admin! And I did post it for that very reason: this encounter report has it all and then some, pilot UFO sighting with recorded transmission transcript, Valentich after his last words goes missing (possibly taken by unknown actors?), and so does his plane (begs the question if after his encounter it went down... or ah.. UP?!). purr |
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 21:00:31 GMT
There are a lot of inconsistencies in the Valentich case. His reason for going didn't make sense. He was supposedly going for crayfish But there were no crayfish available at the time. It was going to be dark when he arrived but he didn't request some one be there to turn on the runway lights. Various other things that cast doubt on the story. HAL Hi HAL, ..mmmm.... cast doubt on WHAT story: so he didn't actually go for crayfish, never made it as far as to make the standard landing request (moving with'ya for the sake of argument  though the crayfish remarks and absent request could alternately be spurious/miscommunications). How exactly would this affect the historical facts of... 1) Valentich' disappearance 2) The missing plane 3) Both happening subsequent to his radio transmission apparently describing a UFO encounter? purr |
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 21:11:25 GMT
Member Franky entered the thread starter of Strange Case of Frederick Valentich at our old forum, he wrote: This is a UFO encounter with eerie results.
"On the night of October 21, 1978 Frederick Valentich radioed into air traffic control in Melborne with some strange news. An unidentified metallic craft was toying with his Cessna as he flew over the Bass Strait en route to King’s Island. No one ever saw him or his aircraft again."
Eerie indeed. If this was the real deal, our skies are perhaps less friendly, less safe, LESS EMPTY then we thought..
Members' debate in that thread was imo as divers as excellent imo, so I'll add some of those replies here to get your deductive juices flowing. Drwu23 said:
An inexperienced young pilot reported being confused , said there was a light or an object near him, radioed that in then got lost.
Best guess is he fell into the drink somewhere and they simply have never found his small aircraft. After the event ufo enthusiasts promptly blamed space aliens.
There are far more interesting cases than this imo.
carolnistri wrote:
I remember the father of Frederick Valentich being on the Larry King show,he was heartbroken the poor man,until the day he died he never gave up hope that one day his son would be found. Then I clearly remember the late Phil Klass being on the Larry King show.He said and Ill never ever forget it,but he said that Fred Valentich "carried three parachutes,that makes him a drug runner doesnt it?" I sat bolt upright in my chair thinking of his poor parents listening to that garbage.
Swamprat posted this Herald Sun article:
Farmer may hold UFO clue to 36-year Valentich plane mystery
Aaron Langmaid
Herald Sun
August 09, 2014
INVESTIGATORS have shed new light on one of ¬Australia’s greatest aviation mysteries.
Almost 36 years to the month that Victorian pilot Fred Valentich vanished without a trace, an independent researcher says there is evidence suggesting the 20-year-old’s Cessna was spotted in the sky over South Australia — attached to a UFO.
The Victorian UFO ¬Action group wants help to identify a farmer near Adelaide who reportedly ¬witnessed the 30m craft hovering over his property the morning after Mr Valentich went missing.
It is claimed the Cessna was stuck to the side of the craft, leaking oil. The farmer even scratched the plane’s registration number on to his tractor but never came forward with the information because he was ridiculed by the few friends he told.
The theory has sparked furious debate as the nation’s leading UFO investigators prepare for a national conference in Melbourne next month.
Lead investigator George Simpson, one of the last people to see the plane in the sky, says the farmer, if still alive, might have information to solve the mystery.
He conceded there was no proof, but said it was the best new lead for a case that had intrigued Australians for decades. “It’s easy for some to dismiss, but there are corroborating stories confirming that there was a UFO near Adelaide at the time,” Mr Simpson said.
Mr Valentich had been on a routine cargo flight to King Island in October 1978 when he disappeared.
In his last conversation with air traffic control, he ¬reported an object hovering in front of him and said it was “not an aircraft’’. It was the last thing Mr Valentich said before a strange metallic clicking sound was heard and the transmission stopped.
Extensive searches failed to find any trace of the plane or the pilot.
“This was an experienced pilot who should have been able to identify another aircraft but was clearly unable to,” Mr Simpson said.
Adding to the mystery, an amateur photo taken in the area that evening shows a dark unidentifiable shape in the sky.
Investigators are also trying to find a copy of Valentich’s final transmission that was originally aired on Melbourne radio station 3XY.
The Valentich case will be among a string of Aussie X-files to be discussed when the Victorian UFO Action group hosts its “Age of Reason” conference on September 6.
For more information, go to the website vufoa.com
www.heraldsun.com.au/news/farmer-may-hold-ufo-clue-to-36year-valentich-plane-mystery/story-fni0fiyv-1227019116651?nk=0941ade2655296215c8f6be93745d77d
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Post by HAL on Apr 11, 2018 21:46:23 GMT
Purr,
You need to read up a bit more on Valentich.
There were problems in his family life. He failed the tests needed to get his commercial license and was considered not to be a particularly competent pilot.
The runway lights had to be requested before departure as the airport would be closed when he arrived.
There are a couple of theories. Someone even reported seeing the plane in the mangroves. But wouldn't say where without being paid.
I looks as if it was a case of someone 'disappearing' to start a new life. Odd that they never found the plane.
HAL
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Post by HAL on Apr 11, 2018 21:53:20 GMT
Odd thing. I just wrote half a page. tried to edit a word, and the text has gone.
Anyway. Valentich had family problems. He had failed his commercial license tests. Also he had had a roasting shortly before for bad airman ship.
The business of the runway lights was particularly important as the airfield on King Island was closed. So he would have had to ask for the lights before he departed.
The story is quite interesting, but it does seem like a case of someone running away to start a new life. But they never found the plane.
HAL
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 21:54:57 GMT
purr put emphasis on Frederick Valentich' last radio transmission replying to Jjflash, who thought the case was inconclusive, with a pilot who had misrepresented his reasons for making the flight, opening the door to more mondane explanations:
I am not nearly satisfied, Jjflash: none of the explanations, hypotheses, speculations on offer addresses the facts of the UFO report, which at face value appears to describe a first hand eyewitness account of a close encounter. Sure you've done this already, but here's the exchange again:
ACTUAL TRANSCRIPTION OF MELBOURNE FLIGHT SERVICE
The transcript portion of the communication between Valentich and Melbourne Flight Service as released by the Australian Department of Transport follows: (FS - Flight Service, DSJ - Frederick Valentich aircraft designation).
1906:14 DSJ Melbourne, this is Delta Sierra Juliet. Is there any known traffic below five thousand?
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, no known traffic.
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, I am, seems to be a large aircraft below five thousand.
1906:44 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, What type of aircraft is it?
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, I cannot affirm, it is four bright, it seems to me like landing lights.
1907 FS Delta Sierra Juliet.
1907:31 DSJ Melbourne, this is Delta Sierra Juliet, the aircraft has just passed over me at least a thousand feet above.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, and it is a large aircraft, confirmed?
DSJ Er-unknown, due to the speed it's travelling, is there any air force aircraft in the vicinity?
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, no known aircraft in the vicinity.
1908:18 DSJ Melbourne, it's approaching now from due east towards me.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet.
1908:41 DSJ (open microphone for two seconds.)
1908:48 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, it seems to me that he's playing some sort of game, he's flying over me two, three times at speeds I could not identify.
1909 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, what is your actual level?
DSJ My level is four and a half thousand, four five zero zero.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, and you confirm you cannot identify the aircraft?
DSJ Affirmative.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, stand by.
1909:27 DSJ Melbourne, Delta Sierra Juliet, it's not an aircraft it is (open microphone for two seconds).
1909:42 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, can you describe the -er- aircraft?
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, as it's flying past it's a long shape (open microphone for three seconds) cannot identify more than it has such speed (open microphone for three seconds). It's before me right now Melbourne.
1910 FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger and how large would the - er - object be?
1910:19 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, Melbourne, it seems like it's stationary. What I'm doing right now is orbiting and the thing is just orbiting on top of me also. It's got a green light and sort of metallic like, it's all shiny on the outside.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet
1910:46 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet (open microphone for three seconds) It's just vanished.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet
1911 DSJ Melbourne, would you know what kind of aircraft I've got? Is it a military aircraft?
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, Confirm the - er ~ aircraft just vanished.
DSJ Say again.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, is the aircraft still with you?
DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet; it's (open microphone for two seconds) now approaching from the south-west.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet
1911:50 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet, the engine is rough-idling. I've got it set at twenty three twenty-four and the thing is coughing.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet, roger, what are your intentions?
DSJ My intentions are - ah - to go to King Island - ah - Melbourne. That strange aircraft is hovering on top of me again (open microphone for two seconds). It is hovering and it's not an aircraft.
FS Delta Sierra Juliet.
1912:28 DSJ Delta Sierra Juliet. Melbourne (open microphone for seventeen seconds).
Also I'd like to point out there is no factual record of the wreckage of Valentich's plane ever having been found. Hence no proof he crashed. Hence the hypothesis saying he mistook Venus for a UFO, and became disoriented (and spun & crashed) is just.. hypothetical.
And the stories about his deceptiveness, conveying intent to pick up passengers, get sea food whatever, NEED NOT BE CONTRADICTORY. No problem if he had plans to buy crayfish AND find paying passengers, and told this to others. No problem if during later investigation neither appeared on hand, they could have been missed by investigators, or Valentich made a mistake in his planning.
The supposed drug run, him wanting to disappear, suggestions of him being unqualified as a pilot (due to failing past exams or rejected for job interviews), with a rich whipcream topping of his UFO beliefs: all stuff ranging from baseless to speculative to INCOHERENT to psychiatric innuendo (obviously he's a UFO-nut!).
But none of these creative explanations addresses the inflight exchange quoted above.
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 22:02:53 GMT
Thanks HAL, good points and I will be reading and doing my best to address your comments. Right now I'm building the thread with some earlier posts from the discussion at the old Casebook.
purr
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 22:29:38 GMT
Skeptical wrote: I remember when this incident occurred but I don't recall all of the details. I assume Valentich's background was pretty thoroughly investigated but I can't help but wonder if this may have been a hoax of some kind. No idea how it was executed since I assume the tower could see his aircraft on radar - but I just wonder.
If hoax can be absolutely ruled out, it's hard to conjure up a prosaic explanation that fits the testimony.
S
drwu23 answered:
Hoax or not he could simply have gotten turned around or saw some natural phenom and simply made a mistake and crashed. As you pointed out in another thread with more info most 'ufo' events prolly turn out to be prosaic events .
It has been pointed out he was not an experienced pilot and was flying at night which it's claimed he was also not adept at.
Why assume the ufo he saw was an alien space craft?
HAL/INT21 added:
From Wiki,
It has been proposed that Valentich staged his own disappearance: even taking into account a trip of between 30 and 45 minutes to Cape Otway, the aircraft still had enough fuel to fly 800 kilometres;[5] despite ideal conditions, at no time was the aircraft plotted on radar, casting doubts as to whether it was ever near Cape Otway;[6] and Melbourne Police received reports of a light aircraft making a mysterious landing not far from Cape Otway at the same time as Valentich's disappearance.[
Seems feasible.
purr opposed theories where Valentich claimed he saw a UFO, was spinning his airplane wildly before crashing, or at most can be said to have mysteriously disappeared:
Valentich did NOT claim, during his exchange with air control, to see a UFO! His initial query was concerning (what appeared to be) a large aircraft, with bright landing lights. As the conversation progressed, high speed observed, he asked if it could be military aircraft on his flightpath.
Of course, you and me are free to say it was a possible unidentified flying object. We're on the right site for it cheesy! And if said here, UFO might include True UFO (probable alien craft), visual error (Venus, light mirage, meteorite etc.) or some acute neurological/psychiatric episode affecting the pilot! However Valentich made no UFO claim.
To be brief, in the last part of his exchange with Melbourne Flight Service, he reported observing the object as in air "stationary', and "hovering", as well as mimicking his orbiting maneuvers while "on top" of him. Please note this clear description is given AFTER the alleged phase where some commentators would have him spinning, jinxing, climbing straight up and diving (prior to alleged crash!!), as he mistook Venus for erratically flying lights, a mistake supposedly caused by his own wild movements. Are we to believe he never noticed immense variation in G forces? Did he also ignore his instrument panel signaling his imminent death, hurtling to sea level? No, as a matter of fact Valentich, prompted by Melbourne Flight Service as a nearby military flght was under consideration, responded with an instrument reading: "My level is four and a half thousand, four five zero zero.". So much for taking a crazy nose dive while looking up at Venus  ...
And after all this the description may be considered in its entirety, provided by a still emphatically alive and apparently level flying/orbiting Valentich, the object now having come in closer proximity, seen as "not an aircraft", having a "green light", appearing "metallic like" and "all shiny on the outside".
Dare I say that rather than claiming an UNIDENTIFIED label, this pilot was identifying the object, as not an aircraft, with green light, metallic, shiny on the outside, capable of unusually great speed, maneuvering away, towards, past, then appearing stationary and hovering, as well as closely following Valentich' plane? Frederich Valentich in all likelyhood reported a close encounter with a flying craft of unearthly origin.
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 22:47:07 GMT
HAL/INT21 posted:
According to the transcript, Valentich said that it wasn't an aircraft.
Purr,
...a mistake supposedly caused by his own wild movements...
You have to remember that even if he was bouncing around a bit, the object he was looking at would seem quite steady.
The juggling effect we often see on photos is due to the camera moving. The person seeing directly woudnt get that effect.
HAL
INT21
purr replied:
I agree in principle, INT21/HAL. (This answer is for Skeptical too, since both of your posts deal with the visual illusion of seeing stationary objects 'move'.)
Agreement: humans (as other animals) evolved to compensate for our head movements, relative to our surroundings. Included are turning, nodding, jumping, jolts, even impacts from falls and violence. Simply: we are designed by natural selection to ourselves getting hit/thrown about while remaining aware/perceptive to THE WORLD AROUND US NOT MOVING.
Modern pilots combine this natural abillity (+ a set of normal faculties like 20/20 vision and mental health) with instrument flying and navigation, allowing for the large scale awareness of an airplane's position relative to distant destinations, ground/sea surface and other air traffic. Pilots are trained to be less prone to spatial disorientation than the average human being.
But there are limits. If you're jolted too hard, or during massive changes in gravity, lacking visual cues, the mind gets overloaded and loses all sense of up and down and relative position. Utter disorientation follows.
There's a specific hypothesis put forward to explain Valentich' report to Melbourne Flight Service. One worth examining.
Was the object he observed stationary, like a bright planet or star, while the illusion of movement was caused by the relative maneuvers of his Cessna?
To test its validity, we must go through his observations blow by blow. (Check out transcript in my Reply # 23.) Valentich, flying at level 4500 ft. initially sees the object pass him overhead at an estimated below 5000 ft. In order to see this happen to a stationary object, a little bouncing about does not suffice, here he must be executing a (partial) roll, steep turn or looping. Because he sees the object pass at great speed (comparable to airforce jet), the roll/turn/climb must have been fairly violent. Next he sees the object approaching from due east, necessitating another roll to his right. Then the object is seen passing over him three times at great speed, equalling necessarily three successive violent rolls. Next Valentich sees the object directly ahead, which means in the case he's chasing a stationary planet, he must now be in a radical climb. Then Valentich says the object is orbiting/turning with him, mimicking his own turn. Applying our 'stationary planet hypothesis' Valentich, eyes on the object, then must be already in a (near) stall while attempting to make a turn. Then he loses sight of the object, followed by the object approaching from the south-west. Thus finally he must be spinning left, presumably losing altitude fast. Splash down, THE END.
Guys, there's two things which do not fit with this theory. If he was moving his plane about as wildly as his object=planet observations require, he would be subjected to six minutes of extreme changes in G force, getting squashed, weightless next, causing serious nausea and disorientation. How could he not notice, and give voice to his increasing alarm? His calm conversation with Melbourne suggest his maneuvers felt normal/mild. Secondly, he consistently reported seeing the object approach him (more than once), in the final moments at close proximity. The details he reported, green light, long shape, metallic/shiny surface, seem incompatible with a bright planet at infinite distance.
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Post by purr on Apr 11, 2018 23:30:15 GMT
jjflash wrote: Can you empathize with how one might interpret you are suggesting an alien-related explanation, purr?
Also, I would very much challenge any such close encounter is a likely explanation.
While I agree with you, purr, that a conclusive explanation is not available, others are much more likely. "I don't know" is not synonymous with "must be aliens".
That the young pilot saw meteors (see Sheaffer's previously linked post re meteor shower occurring on night in question), the reflection of his own plane lights in clouds, water, etc. are infinitely more likely occurrences. At least that is the case if we are going to accept Merriam-Webster's definition of "likely".jjflash, calling on all debate participants, furthermore specified: We all seem to relatively agree a conclusive explanation is not available for this case. Perhaps a list of possible explanations would be most constructive. Please feel encouraged to add to the list [edit: the list as shown below has been expanded with approval from Jjflash and Purr].
Possible explanations for Valentich's disappearance include, in part or combinations thereof and in no particular order:
a) An aircraft of unknown origin intercepted Valentich and took him and his plane, never to be heard from again
b) Aliens and/or an otherworldly non-human intelligence intercepted Valentich and took him and his plane, never to be heard from again
c) Aliens, an otherworldly non-human intelligence and/or someone intercepted Valentich, somehow took him and allowed his plane to crash into the sea
d) He hoaxed his disappearance, which might include he was not even at his claimed coordinates and altitude at the time he made the radio transmission
e) He may have been hoaxing a UFO sighting, and in a relatively unrelated event, later lost control of his plane and crashed into the sea
f) He saw reflections of the lights of his plane in the water and/or clouds, became confused and eventually crashed into the sea
g) He saw meteors and/or other atmospheric phenomena subject to being seen at higher altitudes that are not visible in the same manners from the ground, became confused and crashed into the sea
Sub g: and/or he saw the planet Venus
h) Aliens, an otherworldly non-human intelligence and/or someone intercepted Valentich, interfered with his ability to maintain flight, resulting in his plane crashing into the sea, and his death
Some of the above possibilities could be further misunderstood by a young pilot with minimal night flying experience if he failed to compensate for how something might appear while in motion. In other words, if you are in a plane during flight, a meteor or reflection will appear differently than if you are standing on the ground (camera shaking effect and all that).
Perhaps most importantly to our current discussion...
Would anyone care to put the possible explanations in an order of likelihood?
If so, accompanying thoughts on why you think one explanation is more likely than another would be appreciated.
As for me, I interpret logic to suggest that known elements are always more likely to factor than unknown elements (light reflecting off the bellies of birds as compared to an ET spacecraft, for example). To prove otherwise, one must offer conclusive evidence in support of their preferred belief/proposed most likely explanation.
In this case or any other, a conclusive explanation cannot be arrived at by arguing the lack of validity of other explanations. That's circular, flawed logic, but an order of tentative probability can be considered.
What process do you use to identify the value of the potential explanations?
How do you rank their likelihood?jjflash has a go at ranking probabilities:
I'll take a tentative shot at order of probability:
f) He saw reflections of the lights of his plane in the water and/or clouds, became confused and eventually crashed into the sea
g) He saw meteors and/or other atmospheric phenomena subject to being seen at higher altitudes that are not visible in the same manners from the ground, became confused and crashed into the sea
Sub g: and/or he saw the planet Venus, other celestial bodies, light reflecting off birds, etc.
(I'd say f and g are relatively equal likelihood, as is similarly the case with d and e, imo)
d) He hoaxed his disappearance, which might include he was not even at his claimed coordinates and altitude at the time he made the radio transmission
e) He may have been hoaxing a UFO sighting, and in a relatively unrelated event, later lost control of his plane and crashed into the sea (That's an interesting notion, eh?)
(I think the remaining possibilities are difficult to put in an order of likelihood, as so much more info would be required, but...)
h) Aliens, an otherworldly non-human intelligence and/or someone intercepted Valentich, interfered with his ability to maintain flight, resulting in his plane crashing into the sea, and his death (That's also an interesting notion, purr. Thanks for adding it. I interpret that basically what we're saying here is that a UFO, piloted by whoever or whatever, may have induced engine failure or such as sometimes reported in autos. Intriguing on a number of levels, like why have auto drivers reported such things but not pilots, sailors, etc., at least not with as much regularity?)
c) Aliens, an otherworldly non-human intelligence and/or someone intercepted Valentich, somehow took him and allowed his plane to crash into the sea
a) An aircraft of unknown origin intercepted Valentich and took him and his plane, never to be heard from again
b) Aliens and/or an otherworldly non-human intelligence intercepted Valentich and took him and his plane, never to be heard from againpurr does the same:
You understood correctly, Jj, I took for a basic premise that the Melbourne transcript may be treated as the last recorded words of a missing person and plane, a disappearance involving unusual circumstances including Frederich Valentich being in flight, piloting a single engine Cessna, his final communication possibly containing clues as to what happened to him and his plane, as well as to the causes of any subsequent events.
There's a philosophical divide between my approach and your own, as you are about to see I bring both sets of assumptions to this question we share and you are probably familiar with, as well as more personal beliefs about what's true and real. This might explain why even when applying them fairly and rationally, my ordering of your list by likelyhood/probability will come out somewhat differently! (For reference a simple probability scale is shown above.)
Let's go!
a) An aircraft of unknown origin intercepted Valentich and took him and his plane, never to be heard from again
b) Aliens and/or an otherworldly non-human intelligence intercepted Valentich and took him and his plane, never to be heard from again
c) Aliens, an otherworldly non-human intelligence and/or someone intercepted Valentich, somehow took him and allowed his plane to crash into the sea
h) Aliens, an otherworldly non-human intelligence and/or someone intercepted Valentich, interfered with his ability to maintain flight, resulting in his plane crashing into the sea, and his death
Jjflash, all four options above I rate at Very Likely with regard to the element of the pilot sighting of a flying object. The reason is that there have been a large number of pilot sightings of similar objects, as documented here: The UFO Evidence by NICAP 1964, SECTION V, PILOTS AND AVIATION EXPERTS. Valentich' description conforms to a known pattern of observation, including metallic surface of the object, elongated shape (other variations also reported), and varycolored illumination of object. The elements of (optionally) pilot abduction coupled with airplane abduction(!), an encounter leading to his crash and death I rate at 50% likelyhood (more or less likely to happen than not rolleyes), since they are unprecedented to PERHAPS extremely rare events, at most suggested by the Mantell fatal pursuit of a UFO, TWA Flight 800 interception by an unidentified flying object, theorized to be a missile and contradicted by the exploding fuel tank explanation, as well as pilots' proximity reports of UFOs, including 'near misses': UFO encounters may involve danger to aircraft. By itself, any case for a dangerous or fatal in flight UFO encounter is weak, I only lift it to 50% likelyhood due to Valentich' sighting of the object, which is a fairly common AND AUTHENTIC occurrance for pilots!
f) He saw reflections of the lights of his plane in the water and/or clouds, became confused and eventually crashed into the sea
g) He saw meteors and/or other atmospheric phenomena subject to being seen at higher altitudes that are not visible in the same manners from the ground, became confused and crashed into the sea
Sub g: and/or he saw the planet Venus
Explanations f and g I rate as Unlikely because the single direction of a meteorshower cannot be reconciled with Valentich reporting the object approaching repeatedly from opposite directions plus being stationary. Venus, an unmoving bright planet, must be rejected, since the object's range of observed movement then can only be caused by Valentich plane violently rolling in opposite directions, steep climbs, spins and dives, inevitably resulting in severe pilot nausea/disorientation, none of which is reflected in the calm Melbourne transcript. Sea/cloud reflection of plane lights similarly fails due to incompatibility with Valentich' initial object description of four 'landing lights' at higher altitude.
d) He hoaxed his disappearance, which might include he was not even at his claimed coordinates and altitude at the time he made the radio transmission
e) He may have been hoaxing a UFO sighting, and in a relatively unrelated event, later lost control of his plane and crashed into the sea
Finally, I consider the hoax explanation, any version, as Very Unlikely since there is no known pilot hoax of an unknown craft encounter on record. Instead we have come to know this type of report as at the very least honest, at most probably authentic and beyond normal explanation.GForce added: Here is another interesting article:
www.sott.net/article/247700-Frederick-Valentich-Truth-Was-Out-There-After-All
From the article:
What is significant about the file, Mr Basterfield argues, is that for the first time it is revealed that parts of aircraft wreckage with partial serial numbers were found in Bass Strait five years after the disappearance.
Mr Basterfield says Valentich's aircraft serial numbers fell within the range of those found on the wreckage, almost eliminating the theory that the pilot staged his disappearance on the way to King Island. |
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Post by purr on Apr 12, 2018 0:12:47 GMT
HAL, to answer your questions on Valentich purported reason for making the trip, going for crayfish. It could indeed be a falsehood meant to cover for another intention, innocent or nefarious. But if part of a plan to escape from his life and current identity, arguably it would have made sense to devise a reason that held up under scrutiny. Same goes for calling ahead for turning on runway lighting, he easily could have requested it, the more convincing when he never showed up after his 'abduction'!
I submit to you it might be interpreted the other way round. If he really disappeared after radioing in an unknown sumtin crossing his flightpath, there could have been a spontaneous push-back from Australian authorities, to debunk the story before it would gain traction and cause a panic. Whole plane abductions might be bad for commercial aviation. In that case the crayfish, absent lighting request, and ESPECIALLY the suggestion of incompetence/failed tests (uhh.. the guy was a licensed pilot, reportedly an instructor as well) were red herrings intended to raise doubt and pre-emptively marginalize his account. As UFO-related nuttiness and/or drugrunning related and/or crashing from inexperience and/or Valentich staging his own abduction/death. Any combination, if believed by the public, will work to divert attention from the fact that a pilot and his plane disappeared as he called in a strange flying object closing in...
purr
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though the crayfish remarks and absent request could alternately be spurious/miscommunications). How exactly would this affect the historical facts of...
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